5th ISPMNA: October 7-9, 2024 (Tokyo, Japan)


A pdf version of the program with abstracts can be downloaded here.

The schedule is displayed below, followed by the presentations’ titles and authors.

The opening remark was given by
Commissioner Tomoyuki Sugiyama


Dr. SUGIYAMA worked on research for nuclear reactor safety and risk assessment at JAERI and JAEA.
As a leading expert in the field of nuclear reactor and fuel, Dr. SUGIYAMA contributed to international activities such as the Halden Reactor Project, the Committee on the Safety of Nuclear Installations (CSNI), and the Working Group on the Analysis and Management of Accidents (WGAMA) of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development/Nuclear Energy Agency (OECD/NEA).
As a seconded staff to NRA, Dr. SUGIYAMA engaged in conformity review of commercial power reactors to the new regulatory requirements concerning severe accident.

The Keynote Speech was given by
Pr. Shinobu Yoshimura


Dr. Shinobu Yoshimura has been Project Professor and Vice Director of University Corporate Relations Office, Graduate School of Frontier Sciences, The University of Tokyo (UTokyo) since April 2024.  He completed his studies in School of Engineering, UTokyo (specialized in nuclear engineering) as Doctor of Engineering in 1987. He became Lecturer, Associate Professor of School of Engineering in UTokyo, Professor in Graduate School of Frontier Sciences, and Professor of School of Engineering till March 2024.  His specialty is High-performance and Intelligent Computational Mechanics with Real World’s Applications. For many years, he has also been leading research activities in structural mechanics and probabilistic fracture mechanics in Japan.  He served as a Vice President of IACM (International Association for Computational Mechanics) (July 2018 – July 2022) and the President of APACM (Asian Pacific Association for Computational Mechanics) (December 2019 – August 2022). He has received numerous prestigious awards, including ICCES Distinguished Achievement Medal (2015), IACM Fellow Award (2014), APACM Computational Mechanics Award (2013), AIAA Liquid Propulsion Best Paper Award (2009), IEEE/ACM Supercomputing 06 Gordon Bell Award finalist (2006).

List of Presentations

Regulatory/Generic Application (RG)

presents high level view of probabilistic concepts within nuclear environment and/or their regulatory aspects.

  • RG_01: An Introduction to the JSME Guidelines on Reliability Target Establishment and Conformity Evaluation for Passive Components (T. Asayama, H. Machida, S. Okajima, S. Takaya, T. Itoi)
  • RG_02: A Methodology for Risk-Informed and Performance-Based Structural Design and Maintenance for Nuclear Passive Components (T. Asayama, S. Okajima)
  • RG_03: Updated Guideline on Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics Analysis for Japanese Reactor Pressure Vessels (J. Katsuyama, H. Takamizawa, Y. Li, S. Yoshimura)
  • RG_04: Project EASICS UK AMR Probabilistic Structural Integrity Guidance (M. Martin, R. Marshall)
  • RG_05: Research Activities for Practical Applications of PFM in a Project Commissioned by the Agency for Natural Resources and Energy(M. Nagai, S. Miyashiro, T. Arai, R. Saeki)
  • RG_06: TEPCO’s Efforts in the Practical Implementation of PFM  (Takeo Kimura, Hiroyuki Nakano, Hisashi Takemoto)
  • RG_07: Ontario Power Generation’s Experience with Applying Probabilistic Methods for Demonstration of Fitness-For-Service of CANDU Reactor Pressure Tubes (M. Baghbanan, L. Gutkin, C. Manu)
  • RG_08: Use of Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics in Licensing of New Fuels (N. Glunt, M. Burkardt, G. Schmidt, C. Harrington)
  • RG_09: Using Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics in Regulatory Applications(D. Rudland, D. Widrevitz, S. Cumblidge)
  • RG_10: Holistic Approach Including Non-Deterministic Method for Ageing Management (K. Chitose, S. Lee)
  • RG_11: A Proposed NEA Joint Project on the Piping Integrity Considering Probabilistic Fracture Methodologies (S. Lee, K. Chitose)

Probabilistic Methodology (PM)

regroups the probabilistic approaches (existing or new such as Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning) and their integration to a coherent approach.

  • PM_01: Developing a Reduced-Order Representation of Crystallographic Texture for Application in Surrogate Modelling and Uncertainty Quantification of Crystal Plasticity Models (H. Dorward, D. Knowles, M. Mostafavi, M. Peel)
  • PM_02: Efficient Fast Fracture Probabilistic Assessments for Irradiation-Degradation of Fusion Components (A. Harte, P. Shantraj, M. Atkinson, E. Picking, L. Norman, M. Carrington, C. Hamelin)
  • PM_03: Formulating BEPU Acceptance Criteria in terms of Limit Exceedance Probability. Q-Methods versus P-Methods. (R. Mendizábal)
  • PM_04: New Practices in Global Sensitivity Analysis and Robustness Analysis of Model Outputs (B. Iooss)
  • PM_05: Machine Learning Based Sampling Model of Welding Residual Stress Distribution for Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics Analysis (C. Oh, J-G Kim, S-S. Kang)
  • PM_06: Probabilistic Evaluation of Recommended Inspection Intervals for BWR Code Shroud Welds (M. Burkardt, J. Broussard, T. Meurer, W. Lunceford, D. Sommerville)
  • PM_08: Probabilistic RPV Integrity Assessment: Safety Margin Quantification and Integration of Thermal-Hydraulic Uncertainties (K. Heckmann, K. Angermejer, S. Blasset, D. Bouhjiti, O. Costa, P. Dillström, Y. Dubyk, S. Flores Holgado, D. Flórz del Olmo, S. Koyács, D. Mendez, V. Pištora, M. Pošta, A. Shipsha, J. Sievers, V. Suryaprakash, R. Tiete, P. Von Unge)

Keynote Lecture

The progress and Current Situation of PFM Application in Japan(S. Yoshimura)

Benchmark (BM)

considers the comparison between probabilistic codes or against other techniques (such as FEM) or real life situations.

  • BM_01: Activities of the Committee on practical applications of PFM Part 2: Benchmark Analysis for Failure Frequency of Reactor Pressure Vessel Using Conditions of a Japanese Actual PWR Plant (S. Miyashiro,T. Hirota, H. Takamizawa, R. Nakazaki, S. Yoshimura)
  • BM_02: Gaps Identified from OECD/NEA Benchmark on Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics for Piping Applications (X. Duan,D. Somasundaram, M. Wang)
  • BM_03: Probabilistic RPV Integrity Assessment: Definition of Baseline Probabilistic Benchmarks (V. Suryaprakash, S. Blasset, K. Angermeier, R. Tiete, K. Heckmann, P. Dillstrom, P. von Unge, V. Pištora, M. Pošta, O. Costa, C. Cueto-Felgueroso, J. Roy)
  • BM_04: Probabilistic RPV Integrity Assessment: Baseline Probabilistic Benchmark – Round Robin Analysis (P. von Unge, A. Shipsha, P. Dillström, R. Tiete, V. Suryaprakash, D. Bouhjiti, O. Costa, K. Heckmann, Y. Dubyk, D. del Olmo, S. Kovács, D. Mendez, V. Pištora, M. Pošta)
  • BM_05: Probabilistic RPV Integrity Assessment: Baseline Probabilistic Benchmark – Tool Verification (A. Shipsha, P. von Unge, P. Dillström, R. Tiete, V. Suryaprakash, D. Bouhjiti, O. Costa, K. Heckmann, Y. Dubyk, D. del Olmo, S. Kovács, D. Mendez, V. Pištora, M. Pošta)

Uncertainty Characterization (UC)

covers the upstream part of the probabilistic analysis which provides the necessary uncertain inputs and models.

  • UC_01: PWR Vessel Through Wall Crack Frequency based on Realistic Crack Assessment and its Implications for In-Service-Inspection (K. Murakami, K. Li, J. Katsuyama, N. Sekimura)
  • UC_02: Stress Intensity Factor Solutions for Circumferential and Axial Semi-elliptical Surface Cracks with Large Aspect Ratios in Pipes (K. Azuma)
  • UC_03: A Data-Driven Approach with Finite Element Analysis to Generate Weld Residual Stress Distribution for Probabilistic Assessment of Multi-Pass Welded Nuclear Piping (J.-Y. Jeon, K. Ha, C.-Y. Oh, S-W Song, C. Oh)

Probabilistic Code (CD)

presents the computer codes and the specific methodologies implemented to perform a probabilistic analysis.

  • CD_01: Development of PFM Analysis Code PASCAL-SP2 and Seismic Fragility Evaluation Guideline for Aged Piping (Y. Yamaguchi, J. Katsuyama, Y. Chimi, Y. Li)
  • CD_02: Extremely Low Probability of Rupture Code: Lessons learned from 15 years of development and applications (C. Sallaberry, R. Kurth, F. Brust, E. Twombly, M. Burkardt, N. Glunt)
  • CD_03: Extremely Low Probability of Rupture Code: Looking to 20 Years of Continuous Development and Applications(M. Homiack, N. Glunt)
  • CD_04: Development of PFM Analysis Code FERMAT based on Japanese PFM Guideline JEAG 4640-2018 (S. Miyashiro, T. Sakai, M. Nagai)
  • CD_05: Development of Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics Analysis Code for Chinese Reactor Pressure Vessel: PET-CR (K. Lu, W. Fu, L. Wang, W. Chen)
  • CD_06: Probabilistic Approach for Pressurized Thermal Shock (PTS) Analysis (F. Ricci)
  • CD_07: FAVPRO: NRC’s New Probabilistic Reactor Pressure Vessel Integrity Analysis Tool (C. Nellis, C. Ulmer, E. Cohn, P. Raynaud)

Uncertainty Analysis (UA)

focusses on the probabilistic methodology itself and on the analysis of the statistical results generated.

  • UA_01: Activities of the Committee on Practical Applications of PFM – Part 1: Sensitivity Analysis and Analyses for Effects of Surveillance Data on Failure Frequency of Reactor Pressure Vessel with Analysis Conditions of Japanese Actual PWR Plant (T. Hirota, S. Muyashiro, H. Takamizawa, R. Nakazaki, S. Yoshimura)
  • UA_02: Implementation of Enhanced Uncertainty Analysis into Probabilistic Fitness-For-Service Evaluations of Pressure Tubes in CANDU Reactors (L. Gutkin, C. Manu)
  • UA_03: Incorporation of Global Sensitivity Analysis into Probabilistic Evaluations of Pressure Tube Leak-Before-Break in CANDU Reactors (C. Manu, L. Gutkin)
  • UA_04: Probabilistic Evaluation of the Impact of Inspection Uncertainties on the Estimation of Flaw Growth Rate (M. Pandey, B. Wasiluk, J. Riznic)
  • UA_05: Reduced Inspection Using Probabilistic Analysis (R. Marshall, R. Virumbrales Bell, M. Martin)
  • UA_06: Application of Pipe Rupture Exclusion Methodology using PFM code for LBLOCA Reclassification (T. Kim, H.-T. Kim, M.-W. Kim)
  • UA_07: Probabilistic Evaluation of Rupture in Korean Nuclear Power Plant Piping Systems using xLPR (S.J, Yoon, S.H. Park, S.P. Hong, H.Y. Jeong, J.S Kim, N.S. Huh)
  • UA_08: Uncertainty in Thermal-Hydraulic Analysis of PWR Plant during PTS-related Accidents (N. Tsukamoto)
  • UA_09:Technical Basis of 100°F/Hour Heatup and Cooldown Rates in Reactor Pressure Vessel Pressure-Temperature Limit Curves (A. Scott, A. Udyawar, L. Wilson)
  • UA_10: Use of Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics in Implementing Alternative Inspection and Flaw Evaluation Requirements for CASS Piping Components (D.-J. Shim, M. Burkardt, K. Fuhr, T. Meurer, G. White)
  • UA_11: Using Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics (PFM) to Evaluate Emergent Operating Experience: A Case Study (D. Rudland, M. Leech, M. Homiack, C. Nellis)

Local Executive Committee

  • Chair: Prof. Shinobu Yoshimura (Tokyo University)
  • Vice Chairs:
    • Haruko Sasaki (NRA of Japan)
    • Kunio Onizawa (JAEA)
  • Members:
    • Fumihisa Nagase (NRA of Japan)
    • Kazunori Morishita (Kyoto University)
    • Kenta Murakami (Tokyo University)
    • Yinsheng Li (SMNPC)
  • Secretary: Jinya Katsuyama (JAEA)
  • Secretariat:
    • Yoshihito Yamaguchi (JAEA)
    • Hisashi Takamizawa (JAEA)
    • Akihiro Mano (JAEA)